TASK SETTING

TASK 1 (Call for de-alerting)

              It was the hair trigger alert status, which was maintained for strategic nuclear weapons, that was most controversial in the negotiations on this item at the NPT Review Conference. Given that in his May 1, 2001, speech, President Bush said, “Today’s Russia is not our enemy,” and emphasized that this was no longer the Cold War era, there is no reason for such a high alert status to be continued. Moreover, the maintenance of hair trigger alert inevitably increases the risk of accidental launches of nuclear missiles. We should start from the common sense that “a world with nuclear weapons on hair trigger alert is not a sane world.”

              In addition, the triad of strategic nuclear weapons (ICBMs, SLBMs and Strategic Bombers),  which is based upon the same ideology of extreme distrust of the Cold War era, is still maintained. The US, Russia and China should abandon the idea of the strategic triad, and reduce the number of legs of their strategic nuclear weapons, following the examples of France and the UK.

EVALUATION

              As for TASK 1, The GOJ has expressed its concern about de-alerting. The MOFA has stated that it has been considering what to do to address this issue. Yet nothing concrete has been proposed thus far.

              Following his May 1 statement, President Bush stated again that the hostile relationship of the Cold War era between the US and Russia had disappeared. He said this in his speech to declare the U.S.’s withdrawal from the ABM Treaty on December 13, 2001. He stated, “Neither does the hostility that once led both our countries to keep thousands of nuclear weapons on hair-trigger alert, pointed at each other.” It is not generally believed that this statement meant that the US had actually de-alerted. However, it is at least an unintended logical confession by President Bush that the hair trigger alert was outdated. Future developments on this issue should be closely watched.

              We must wait for further information on how the US Nuclear Posture Review, which was submitted to Congress in early 2002, addresses the issue of de-alerting.

              Though the GOJ has some interest in the issue of de-alerting, it has made no concrete efforts, so we give it a D grade.